Interest rate rules with a positive weight on debt-to-GDP cause indeterminacy.Compared to inflation targeting, debt-to-GDP stabilization calls for a more expansionary policy when debt-to-GDP is high, so as to deflate the debt burden through inflation and output growth.Sustained periods when the real interest rate remains below the central bank's estimate of r-star can induce the agent to place a substantially higher weight on the deflation equilibrium, causing it to occasionally become self-fulfilling. In model simulations, raising the central bank's inflation target to 4% from 2% can reduce, but not eliminate, the endogenous switches to the deflation equilibrium. All of these developments may have contributed to an unusual buildup of financial instability.I solve for the time series of stochastic shocks and endogenous forecast rule weights that allow the model to exactly replicate the observed time paths of the U. This paper explores the contribution of each of these three developments in explaining financial crises using long-run historical data for 17 advanced economies.
Moreover, financial recessions that are preceded by strong increases in income inequality or low productivity growth are also associated with deeper and slower recoveries.
At times, they are initiated by relatively small shocks.
Consistent with these empirical observations, this paper extends a standard macroeconomic model to include financial intermediation, long-term defaultable loans, and occasional financial crises.
Those who were recently employed are twice as likely to find a job as those who report wanting a job.
For the unemployed, the duration since last employment is a better predictor of future employment than the self-reported duration of unemployment is, as the two duration measures often disagree.
Previous research showed that credit growth is a robust predictor of financial fragility.